Daerah Keyakinan (Confidence Bands) Fungsi Tahan Hidup Waktu Tunggu Bencana Banjir Bandang Besar di Indonesia (Data Berdistribusi Eksponensial Satu Parameter Tersensor Tipe-II)

Abstract

Indonesia is a country that is susceptible to disaster, one of which is flash flood. There are at least nine occurred of flash floods in Indonesia that resulted in fatalities over 50 peoples. Data duration of the flood event included in the survival data categories. The analysis used in this study is the analysis of survival (survival analysis) of data exponentially distributed with one parameters of type-II censored. The exponential distribution is one of the most important in life time analysis. The purpose of this study is to know the area of confidence (confidence bands) for the survival function of duration time of the flash flood event in Indonesia. The result showed that the longer period of duration time flash flood event of the estimated survival function S (t) is getting smaller, and the graph area confidence (confidence bands) and the width of the interval of the upper limit and lower limit survival function of each data moves decreases to follow the pattern exponential. The data used is the data on flash floods in Indonesia since 1990.