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| dc.description.abstract | Energy consumption forecasting, especially premium, is an integral
part of energy management. Premium is a type of energy that receives
government subsidy. Unfortunately, premium forecastings being performed have
considerable high error resulting difficulties on reaching planned subsidy target
and exploding the amount. In this study forecasting was conducted using
multilinear regression (MLR) method with ten candidate predictor variables. The
result shows that only four variables which are inflation, selling price disparity
between pertamanx and premium, economic growth rate, and the number of car,
dictate premium consumption. Analsys on the MLR model indicates that the
model has a considerable low error with the mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE) of 5.18%. The model has been used to predict 2013 primium
consumption with 1.05% of error. The model predicted that 2013 premium
consumption was 29.56 million kiloliter, while the reality was 29.26 million
kiloliter. | en_US |
