Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Kabupaten Lombok Tengah pada Tahun 2010-2015 Menggunakan Metode Sarima (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average )

Abstract

Tourism is an industry sector that has the potential to be developed to the economy of a region. With the development of the economy of an area with the increasing number of visitors in the area, Central Lombok is one of the existing districts of Lombok island which has a quite varied tourist attraction ranging from coastal tourism, waterfalls, the use of culture to. The purpose of this study aims to determine the best SARIMA model for forecasting the number of foreign tourists visit in Central Lombok Regency using SARIMA method and to know the forecasting for the number of foreign tourists visit in Central Lombok Regency using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoreggresive Integrated Moving Average) method. The benefit of this study is to predict the number of tourists coming to Central Lombok to improve services and provide decision support methods, including costing and also for services. In this research, the researcher uses secondary data obtained from the cultural and tourism office and Central Lombok BPS in 2015. This research uses SARIMA (Seasonal Autoreggresive Integrated Moving Average) method as the development of ARIMA method where the data used in this research is data from 2010 to 2015 The results obtained that the data of foreign tourists visiting the district of Central Lombok contain trend patterns that continue to increase every year. Although there are seasonal peak season differences from year to year, there is a tendency to increase the number of tourists each year. The best model is SARIMA (2,1, 3) (1, 1, 0) ^12.