EFEKTIVITAS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM KINERJA SEKTOR PERBANKAN

Abstract

This study was designed to measure the effectiveness of monetary policy and its implication on the performance of the banking sector in Indonesia during the period of 1971-2009. Regression analysis using the error correction model (ECM) was implemented in this study. Chow test using dummy variable approach was implanted into the ECM to observe the possibility of systematic or structural change in the effectiveness of monetary policy before and after the banking crisis that began nationwide in the near end of 1997. The ECM with Chow test showed there was no systematic or structural c98]lgfqhange in the effectiveness of monetary policy and therefore its implication on the performance of the banking sector before and after the banking crisis. This result suggested that further analysis should be accomplished using the ECM without Chow test. The ECM without Chow test revealed both in the short and in the long run real money supply had negative impact on gross domestic product, but with smaller elasticity in the latter, from -0,3805 decreased to -0,1816. Such negative impact in fact was inconsistent with the theory and it indicated the volatility of the Indonesia’s banking sector. While the smaller value of the long run elasticity im-plied there was positive adjustment but it had been unable to eliminate the short run negative impact entirely.Compared with prior research (Triyono and Utomo, 2004) that found the short and the long run elasticity of -0,4012 and -1,2938 in the period before the nationwide banking crisis occurred, the finding of this research indicated that the banking sector regulation administrated by government during and after the crisis has been improving the performance of the banking sector signifi-cantly.